So many times we have heard about how people are turning away from traditional media, The requiem for the traditional radio, TV and newspapers has been written many times. So, is the death of traditional media vastly exaggerated? No, I am afraid not. Over the past few weeks, many factors have come together in my mind to indicate that the media as we know it will no longer exist in five years time. This is because of four interrelated factors: the entry of new media members; the impact of technology; disappearance or negative changes to sources of income for media firms; and narrowing or rather changes of reader's interest and demographics. This has severe impact on the media companies of today, the media people and the readers.

First, the factors that raised this issue in my mind . . .

The first was a seminar arranged by Arab Media Watch at the School of Oriental and African Studies on the topic of whether or not the western media fans sectarianism in the Middle East. On the panel were four very senior and experienced media people, ranging from the head of the BBC Arabic service, to a national newspaper publisher, to a senior foreign editor and a columnist with decades of experience. The basic thrust of what these worthies said was that no, the western media does not fan sectarianism in the Middle East. This obviously went down like a lead balloon with the audience. I was listening to what the panelists were saying and then observing the audience. When I walked away, I sent an email to my sister stating that both sides are heading for extinction at worst or reduced relevance at best. The issues around the media will be discussed by the by, but the audience was looking to the media to actually make sense of the mayhem happening in the Middle East. While they do have their place, their place is tiny. In addition, the frequent outbursts of emotion sat very strangely with the newspaper world.  This is one of the factors that will drive traditional media to irrelevance.

Traditional newspapers, TV and radio generally try not to pander to the extreme sides, but try to report facts and figures and give equal time to all sides. Again, there are seriously wide and different types of these media channels, but generally, in the assortment of western media outlets, they tend to cluster together on the centre ground. But given the fact that we have new entrants such as Hamas TV, Al Jazeera TV, internet radio stations, Arabic language websites and dedicated English language Arabic newspapers (for example Arab News, Al Ahram Weekly, etc.), there are just way too many alternative channels to get the news which you want, in the spin you want it, with the kind of positioning you want and at the timing you want. So effectively, the audience at the seminar was looking at broad-based media to reflect their own biases, requirements and way of looking at the world. Unfortunately, that time has now gone. It was politics that concerned the Arab Media Watch seminar audience. Segolene Royal, the French Socialist Presidential candidate came up with her manifesto based upon an internet campaign. (The fact that she dumped most of it and went back to the hoary old elephantine ideas of old socialism is not the new media's fault!)

American elections since the turn of the century have now become heavily dependent upon the internet. Whether it was the election in 2000, or the election in 2004 or now, the ongoing battle for the election to come in 2008, the internet matters hugely in terms of mobilising your fan base (Barak Obama is on Facebook -  so am I, do look me up!), getting funding, getting your message across or perhaps most importantly, getting and keeping the new internet aware generation hooked into your campaign. In addition, this form of political engagement is happening in so many countries, ranging from Germany, UK, France, Sweden, Finland, South Korea, Singapore, and Australia etc. Heck, one could even say that the noisiest political drums in Egypt are on the blogosphere.

Here's one that has bubbled up recently, where more international people were reading this site (http://www.freekareem.org/) to know about Abdul Kareem, than reading the local press, which was silent on this issue. No wonder, because it is free of government or editorial control. Same with the kifayaa movement, which has a huge following on the internet. This leads us to the impact on the value chain. Once upon a time, there were salaried or freelance newspapermen (generally) who produced content, editors then chose and guided, and the printing happened afterwards based on that, then distribution happened and I would read the newspaper while sipping my morning cup of tea or while squished on the London Underground. Now, content is open, blogs are a dime a dozen. Take the above example of Egypt, if you wanted to know about what's really happening in Egypt, you go to the bloggers rather than the controlled Egyptian Media. Pakistan has tried to block or control their internet media outlets, and bloggers were the ones who broke news and provided content. Bloggers are now being invited to press conferences and slowly are being the main source of content. Think about the Drudge Report!