Recent revelations by the Washington Post of a United States plan to unseat the International Atomic Energy Agency's chief Mohamed ElBaradei have thrown a new name into the ring with Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer emerging as the American's preferred candidate to challenge the incumbent for the job as director-general of the UN's nuclear watchdog organization.

 

The 62 year-old popular Egyptian diplomat has incurred the wrath of senior Bush officials, partly because of US frustration over the "softly, softly" approach taken by the IAEA with Tehran over the Iran nuclear weapons issue, but also because of open disagreement over the existence of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.

 

After ElBaradei challenged the evidence given by the Secretary of State Colin Powell to the United Nations in his now-infamous presentation on 5 February 2003, administration hardliners led by noted Vice-President Dick Cheney and Under Secretary of State for Disarmament John Bolton have openly canvassed for ElBaradei's removal, even to the extent, according to the Post, of bugging his phone calls in an a bid to gather incriminating evidence in the IAEA chief's recent dealings with Tehran over the monitoring of their nuclear weapons program.

 

Bush officials suspect ElBaradei of "turning a blind eye" to Tehran's clandestine nuclear weapons and, while the administration has failed to provide any evidence of wrongdoing on the part of ElBaradei, this has not slowed them in their efforts to remove him as the long serving chief of the UN's pre-eminent nuclear supervisory committee.

US State department spokesman Richard Boucher has refused to comment on the Washington Post's allegations that Mr ElBaradei's phone was bugged by US intelligence agencies though went on to state the administration's belief that no senior official at the United Nations should hold office for more than two terms.

 

Observers see replacing ElBaradei with a more compliant chief such as Downer as bringing the IAEA more into line with the Bush Administration's hardline thinking on the issue of nuclear non-proliferation. The question is where does Downer fit into this grand plan?



Referred to unflatteringly even by his American supporters as a "nobody", Downer has served as Foreign Minister in the conservative Howard Government since March 1996 having had previous experience in the diplomatic service and as an economist.

 

In the last four years, under Downer's guidance, the country's foreign policy has been aligned almost totally with that of the United States, a fact most notably seen on the issue of the recent invasion of Iraq where the Howard Government ignored public condemnation of the war to send over 2000 troops in support of the 2003 US–led offensive.

 

As Foreign Minister, Downer has been one of the main architects of this pro-US policy, and many commentators, noting his compliant and unquestioning style with respect to US foreign policy, predict a free hand for the US with the International Atomic Energy Agency, should Downer gain the top job.

However ElBaradei has received considerable support amongst the 35 members of the IAEA and has indicated his preference to serve a third term. Australian Opposition spokesman for Foreign Affairs, Kevin Rudd, questioned why ElBaradei was being pressured to resign in an interview with the current affairs program The World Today:

"I think the big challenge is to work out what is wrong with the current head of the IAEA. I haven't heard anyone so far say that Mohamed ElBaradei has performed badly in that function. If that is the Howard Government's view that the current head of the IAEA is not doing its job - his job - then I think they should tell Australia and tell the world why and give evidence for that."

Downer has remained coy about his being named as possible chief of the IAEA, claiming no interest, though not ruling it out completely. In an interview with the Australian ABC's "AM" program, Downer sidestepped the issue saying,

"…I've not taken up the opportunity to demonstrate a great deal of interest in this job; I'm very happy with the job I've got."



When asked if Australia would support Mr ElBaradei, Downer was again evasive stating, "…we've wanted to engage the support of the IAEA and the Director–General, and we've always had that support and so…we're not getting into, for Australia's part, any particular role in this issue at all."

Downer's supporters point to his role in the adoption of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) in 1998, and considerable diplomatic experience as Foreign Minister, as proof of his ability to perform the job as IAEA chief.

 

In an interview with the Sydney Morning Herald, Hugh White, head of Strategic and Defense Studies at the Australian National University, rated Downer as "genuinely now very knowledgeable about the world and diplomatic affairs."