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Israel Tests Iran Attack Theory over the Mediterranean

 article about Israel Tests Iran Attack Theory over the Mediterranean
2008-06-23 02:28:29


The practice sessions were sighted on radar on Cyprus as well as by civilian aircraft in the area and the aircraft were also physically sighted and observed. The F16 and F15 aircraft were fully armed and the support aircraft were seen to be in operational status. The distance flown between Israel and Greek territory precisely matches any distance flown between Israel and Iran.


Israel and US have publicly stated that Iran would not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons and both countries have also stated that they would stop Iran from developing and deploying such weapons.

Should Israel and the US be silly enough for an attack on Iran to eventuate, the consequences for Israel, Iran, as well as the US would be substantial.

First of all, most of Iran's nuclear development programme activities are carried out underground necessitating either 'bunker-buster' weapons or advanced-technology cruise missile technology which would have to be supplied by the US. Israel already has the 'bunker-busters' but not the cruise-missiles. Even with those weapons deployed, any success rate in destroying Iran's nuclear facilities would be about 10% at best as the facilities are either well-hidden or resistant to attack.

In the event of an attack, Iran could well respond with Shahab-3 missiles. Officially, little is known about these weapons but what is known is that the Shahab-3 missile was developed off North Korean technology, that it has the capability of reaching all of the Middle East and that is has limited nuclear capability.

A more likely response from Iran would be to mount major third-party attacks in Iraq, Afghanistan, via Lebanon and via occupied territories including Gaza. It is known that the various groups have rocket and missile technology, all supplied by Iran, that could easily be deployed against any target within the Middle East. Iran also has the capability to strike outside the Middle East again through third parties. The matter of supplying these weapons also appears not to be an issue for Iran in terms of the logistics of supplying them. 

While unlikely, as Iran needs the money it gains from oil supplies, Iran could disrupt supplies through the Gulf, the Straights of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman. Other consequences in the event of an attack would be that the US would immediately alienate many of it supporters throughout the region making the Middle East and even parts of Europe a virtual no-go area for US ships, aircraft and other logistics arrangements.

Upon an attack, the price of crude oil would immediately sky-rocket to levels more than double current market prices plunging most western and other economies into a recession, the blame for which would be laid at the feet of both the US and Israeli Governments.

The facts of the scenario are these:

Whatever the US and Israel say or think, Iran will have a nuclear capability, that capability being much closer than what people think.

Attacking Iran would have little if any effect on Iran's nuclear capability. Upon attacking Iran, any regional support for both Israel and the US would be gone and then having plunged the world into a major financial crisis, the US and Israel would only have each other to support as no-one else would be silly enough go near them.
All the US and any of its allies that might be left standing after such an event will have to do is to watch the casualty rate in Iraq, Afghanistan and other places rise to level not seen before.

In short, don't be silly gentlemen. Stay well away from this scenario.


And the practice runs are still continuing...




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