NATO IN AFGHANISTAN - THE ROAD TO NOWHERE
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It seems that just about every major country has had a go at trying to either conquer or stabilise Afghanistan, all of these attempts failing in one form or another, the most recent attempt being the Russian occupation which fell apart after 15 years of trying.
So what is it about Afghanistan that seems to be so important as to prompt major countries to go even into the place and I think we might restrict the analysis timeline back to the Russian withdraw.
When the Russians actually withdrew from
The Taliban never having been completly defeated and Osama and co never having been captured, the current status in
The problems for NATO are multiple. NATO can forget any notion of normal military operations being effective. In this sort of country with this opponent, normal operations won't work. Small SAS style units can be very effective in this environment and a certain number of these kinds of forces are being deployed. In
In total though, while this year NATO might have limited success in containing the Taliban, the longer-term prospects look vastly different no matter how large the NATO involvement is. I can see a similar scenario occurring as the Russians suffered and, with the current NATO strategy in place, an ultimate NATO defeat in
Add to that the Pakistan factor whereby the longer-term prospects of Pakistan surviving as a pro-American dictatorship are minimal and the prospects for Afghanistan and the region look grim, this given the fact that Pakistan is nuclear-armed and has substantial amounts of modern military hardware.
We shall have to wait and see as to the possible outcomes of this ongoing conflict.
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For Arabs and Muslims their honour or the shaming of themselves and their brethren is something which cannot go unavenged. One must be prepared to die for it. It is linked to the culture of retribution, where a hurt or death brought upon another of one's family, tribe or clan must be avenged and this now extends to one's sect, nation, ethnicity and common religion. Psycho-culturally, the U.S. has entered an unwinable and endless war.
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This article brings forth the ideas we have long known about the politics of war, although perhaps we have forgotten some of the details along the way. Read on . . .
The defeat in Iraq undermines any hope of success in Afghanistan. At least half of the country will fall to the Taliban within two years. The new southern caliphate could become a Pashtunistan, tearing away Pastun tribes and threatening the break up of Pakistan and the creation of an unstable, fundamentalist, nuclear regime there.