Israel Tests Iran Attack Theory over the Mediterranean

The practice sessions were sighted on radar on Cyprus as well as by civilian aircraft in the area and the aircraft were also physically sighted and observed. The F16 and F15 aircraft were fully armed and the support aircraft were seen to be in operational status. The distance flown between Israel and Greek territory precisely matches any distance flown between Israel and Iran.

Israel and US have publicly stated that Iran would not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons and both countries have also stated that they would stop Iran from developing and deploying such weapons.

Should Israel and the US be silly enough for an attack on Iran to eventuate, the consequences for Israel, Iran, as well as the US would be substantial.

First of all, most of Iran's nuclear development programme activities are carried out underground necessitating either 'bunker-buster' weapons or advanced-technology cruise missile technology which would have to be supplied by the US. Israel already has the 'bunker-busters' but not the cruise-missiles. Even with those weapons deployed, any success rate in destroying Iran's nuclear facilities would be about 10% at best as the facilities are either well-hidden or resistant to attack.

In the event of an attack, Iran could well respond with Shahab-3 missiles. Officially, little is known about these weapons but what is known is that the Shahab-3 missile was developed off North Korean technology, that it has the capability of reaching all of the Middle East and that is has limited nuclear capability.

A more likely response from Iran would be to mount major third-party attacks in Iraq, Afghanistan, via Lebanon and via occupied territories including Gaza. It is known that the various groups have rocket and missile technology, all supplied by Iran, that could easily be deployed against any target within the Middle East. Iran also has the capability to strike outside the Middle East again through third parties. The matter of supplying these weapons also appears not to be an issue for Iran in terms of the logistics of supplying them. 

While unlikely, as Iran needs the money it gains from oil supplies, Iran could disrupt supplies through the Gulf, the Straights of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman. Other consequences in the event of an attack would be that the US would immediately alienate many of it supporters throughout the region making the Middle East and even parts of Europe a virtual no-go area for US ships, aircraft and other logistics arrangements.

Upon an attack, the price of crude oil would immediately sky-rocket to levels more than double current market prices plunging most western and other economies into a recession, the blame for which would be laid at the feet of both the US and Israeli Governments.

The facts of the scenario are these:

Whatever the US and Israel say or think, Iran will have a nuclear capability, that capability being much closer than what people think.

Attacking Iran would have little if any effect on Iran's nuclear capability. Upon attacking Iran, any regional support for both Israel and the US would be gone and then having plunged the world into a major financial crisis, the US and Israel would only have each other to support as no-one else would be silly enough go near them.
All the US and any of its allies that might be left standing after such an event will have to do is to watch the casualty rate in Iraq, Afghanistan and other places rise to level not seen before.

In short, don't be silly gentlemen. Stay well away from this scenario.

And the practice runs are still continuing...

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Henk says on 2008-06-23 16:04:31 about Iran A couple of points for New_York_Loner. I would agree with most of your comments. In terms of getting from Israel to Iran, and back, both the F16 and the F15 aircraft would have to be supported by tankers. That is what the 707 tankers would be used for. These aircraft would also have to be supported by AWACS aircraft. That is what they would use the EC2 Hawkeye for. Even with tanker support, they would have travel from Isreal either via Turkey, via Jordan or via Egypt. Interesting scenario but full of disandvantages. Cheers.

Monpoly man says on 2008-06-23 15:47:01 about I hope they bomb Iran before they bomb us.

new_york_loner says on 2008-06-23 11:12:11 about Attack on Iran The conventional wisdom, here in the USA, is that what is good for the Jewish State in Palestine is good for America. That is a very dangerous myth. The present Iran/Israel "crisis" and Israel's recent threats to pre-emptively strike Iran is a stunning example of the simple fact that what is in Israel's national interests is not always in the national interests of the United Sates of America. Sadly, both presumptive nominees for US President have quietly acquiesced to Israel's warmongering activities; the tail is now wagging the dog. A quick look at a map of the region indicates that the Israeli strike force will be obliged to fly over US-controlled airspace. That means that the US will be a full partner in the aggression directed at Iran. When the US/Israeli attack occurs, crude oil prices will probably double overnight and our troops will certainly be targeted in Iraq and Afghanistan. China and Russia mat not sit idly by while their technicians are being murdered and their oil and gas supplies are put into jeopardy. Americans will pay the price for Israel's paranoia and Washington's failure to place the US national interests ahead of those of the Jewish State in Palestine. One can understand why John McCain would like to expand the war in Middle East; he is a reliable tool of the War Lobby. It is more difficult to understand why Barack Obama would give his blessing to a strike on Iran. Perhaps he is trying to ingratiate himself to AIPAC and the COPOMAJO, if so, Barack is just another self-serving politician and a warmonger. America should divest from Israel, not invest more troops and treasure into defending this rogue theocracy.

Henk says on 2008-06-23 10:25:42 about Iran I agree with you Tojo. But then, remember Iraq, Afghanistan and indeed Vietnam. I think an attack would be a total waste in terms of obtaining some peace and stability thoughout the Middle East and I would certainly not take the risk. You must also remember that Iran, in terms of its defence capabilty, is reasonably well equipped but is certainly no match for either the US, Israel or both. It would not be an actual attack that concerns me, it would be the subsequent consequences. Cheers

Tojo says on 2008-06-23 05:29:48 about Iran Nukes The US and Israel will surely not be stupid in their attack strategies. They will ensure that they first destroy all of Iran’s retaliatory and defensive capabilities before they strike at their nuclear establishments. In simple terms “cut off their hands and legs before stabbing them in the chest". If I can think of this I am sure US and Israeli Generals can too!!!! Cheers, Tojo

anon. says on 2008-06-23 03:47:25 about Ya ya, you don't want to worsen your own and other countries' situation, US. Pretty pls?

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