Insurgent psychology – why they aren’t trying to win, but why they will!
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By Stephen John Morgan, Paradoxical Patterns






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    Furthermore, the United States has trampled underfoot the most basic democratic entitlement of the right of nations to self-determination. Moreover, the right of self-determination is something, which, like honour, is so basic that it goes beyond legalistic niceties and generates revolutionary fervour. And although much of the character of the struggles is clouded in forms of black reaction, they are fought with revolutionary zeal. Ironically, in different forms and from different groups, the US has taken the place of the dictator they deposed, by robbing the Iraqis of the right, the satisfaction and the honour of overthrowing Saddam themselves.

     

    Today, the driving forces of the character of the insurgency is not so much to defeat the American enemy, as to repay him in the form of dishonouring and shaming him. Guerrilla war which is the traditional form of Arab combat, going back to Bedouin tribal times, is precisely fought, not for victory as such, but for shaming and dishonouring those who have brought shame and dishonour upon them. Bedouin tribes would not seek to conquer kingdoms and occupy others territories, so much, but rather preferred to execute raids aimed at shaming another tribe through robbing it of its honour. Much of this lies at the root of the psychology of the un-winnable asymmetrical war the U.S. is now embroiled in. The longer they stay the longer they remain an object to be shamed and dishonoured. The aim will be to defeat them, not so much militarily, which is impossible, as psychologically through the unrelenting humiliation of its forces.

     

    The insurgent aims dictate the means. They wear down and ridicule the U.S. army by their hit and run tactics, their invisibility, they picking off of choppers, the sniper, the IEDs and, of course the suicide bomber. When suicide bombers first emerged in Palestine and Lebanon against the overwhelming might of the Israeli forces, the responses to why they did this was that "our bodies are the only weapons, we have left." The suicide attack is seen as the ultimate act of superiority left to the attacker – the "spiritual" superiority of having the courage to take one's own life against an infidel enemy, hiding behind his unassailable array of armaments, defending his shameful materialistic Western values. Suicide bombing confuses and terrifies the opponent, however much feigned distain they attempt to show towards it. For similar reasons, the beaten Japanese, with a similar shame/honour culture code, resorted to the terrifying tactic of kamikaze pilots of the 2nd World War.

     

    What hold true toward the US occupiers is also the case for the unresolved historical blood feuds between the different sects and ethnic groups. Centuries of insults are heaped on fresh memories of atrocities under the Hussein regime. The tactics of suicides, of the torture, throat slitting, public beheading and the dumping of victims in groups in street dumps or floating as bloated corpses down the Tigris, are all meant to shame and humiliate the opposite camp. This is not only applicable to the long-suffering Shiites, but conversely to the Sunnis, who are well aware that they will be held to account and face retribution for the crimes of Sunni dominated regimes of the past. They are fighting to pre-emptively shame the vengeful shamers; dishonour the avenging dishonourers in advance of an all-powerful Shia government. Indeed, in an unconscious and perverse form, part of the character of the sectarian carnage the Iraqis are wreaking upon themselves also plays a role in the blaming and shaming the U.S. in the yes of the international community for the situation it has created.

     

    The U.S. cannot create stability or effect regime change, because it would entail achieving an impossible cultural change from bottom up. For these reasons, the mounting military operations to achieve security as a space to achieving political solution and national reconciliation, is purely pie in the sky. The U.S. is applying sticky plasters to gaping gangrenous wounds at a tremendous and worthless price. They are doomed to failure. Thus they are stuck in an endless war, they cannot win.

     

    For the blinkered and myopic, cultural ignoramuses in the White House this is a book closed with a thousand seals. Consequently, the Iraqi adventure turned out to be a victory of astonishment over foresight. But having banged their heads on it they have chosen either to ignore it, or to treat it with contempt and carry on regardless. The bankrupt Administration has chosen to simply repeat and repeat again and again the same failed strategy and tactics, regardless of whether they kept coming up with the same failed results - something someone once described as being the definition of madness.

     

    It would take a leap of the imagination for the Administration to realize that the aim of the insurgency is not to win, but to take retribution and to heap shame upon them. Culturally, this would even be the case should they be able to win militarily! Humiliation not annihilation is their payback for the occupation. Thus, withdrawal is the only option for the US, since they cannot uproot an emotional motivation by military means. It is not just that the US cannot succeed in an asymmetrical war, but that they cannot win a psychologically asymmetrical conflict. Withdrawal will be a victory for the insurgents. But regardless of all this, sometimes eating humble pie is the most emotionally intelligent course.

     




    AUTHOR: Stephen John Morgan

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