Ironically, the biggest point of support for the U.S. at the moment is Muqtada al-Sadr. Despite being portrayed, somewhat justifiably, like Robbie Burns’ famous “wee, cowering, timorous. beastie,” his turncoat collaboration with the U.S. and Iraqi government is an enormous political coup and great tactical advantage for the Americans. In particular his instruction to his followers to stand down has been invaluable in tipping the balance of forces in America’s favor. For the U.S. to have had to start by taking on both the Sunni insurgency and Shi’ite Mehdi Army, might have proved unviable.
But just how long this can last is another question. Undoubtedly, part of the recent Sunni sectarian strategy has been to intensify sectarian attacks with the aim of goading the Mehdi into retaliation. Given the public U.S. commitment to clamp down on Shia militias, the Sunnis hoped to use the Mehdi as a second proxy front by forcing them into confrontation with U.S. forces. But if despite the surge, the Sunnis are still able to sustain a high level of sectarian atrocities, then at some point, the unrest among the Shi’ite public will force militia elements into action from below, with or without Muqtada al-Sadr. Once the population begins to feel that the U.S. cannot protect them, then they will demand the militias take matters back into their own hands. They will want to counter-attack and they will attack the U.S. simultaneously in an effort to drive them out of their way, so as to have a free run at the Sunnis. This would stretch U.S. forces and, in turn, embolden the Sunnis to also intensify their own attacks on American forces.
It is quite possible, that Shi’ite unrest could quickly develop into an uprising, or a sort of “Iraqi intifada”, rather than a purely sectarian movement or just an insurgency. Sadr City could explode and become a cause célèbre for Shias nationally and internationally. Where nearly all of the 2 million strong population is armed this would be more like a revolution. It would quickly spread throughout East Baghdad and even across the Tigris River into the Sunni West. What began as a so-called U.S. surge would recoil upon them in the form of a popular tsunami engulfing American forces. They would be forced to raise the white flag and escape, not just formally retreat. U.S. casualties could be catastrophic. Pictures of surrounded troops being pulled from humvees and beheaded on the streets could flash across TV screens worldwide. A Vietnam-scale movement could develop in the U.S. The resignation, by one means or another, of the Commander-in-Chief, would be on the cards.
In old-fashioned military terms, what the U.S. is doing is “laying siege” to a city. They are playing with fire. Should they pursue their promised, aggressive policy of bringing in heavy armaments, tanks and air support in order to root out insurgents in a densely packed urban setting, they risk causing massive collateral damage. Civilian deaths from heavy fighting could start to reach numbers where talk of massacres starts to become real. Troops stretched to breaking point can make big mistakes. Situations like this are pregnant with the accidental, the ill-thought out and the outrageous. This is another scenario which runs the risk of turning passive resistance into a mass popular uprisings. In the case of atrocities and massacres by U.S. forces and/or in collusion with Iraqi Army troops, cries might well be heard for the indictment of U.S. commanders for war crimes.
In any of the scenarios above, the Iraqi government could easily fall. The current “hard man” Maliki is quite capable of jumping ship and moving in the direction of either comfortable exile or joining a movement for an independent Shi'ite state. The Army and police would turn against the U.S. army and join forces with the militias and insurgents. The U.S. would be left with out any popular support, without a government, a mandate or a real state to save.
Whatever Bush or Gates' plans are for the future is irrelevant. The surge has been presented as the last U.S. battle. Whatever the outcome, after all they have been through; the Iraq people will not stand for any more projects, plans or promises from the U.S. in the future. There are no more chances. The U.S. is gambling away its last reserves of support, trust and belief. When it fails, every section of society will turn against it.
