When an immovable object meets an irresistible force collision is inevitable. The two forces are those of the irresistible drive of the conservative fundamentalists in the US Administration and the immovable force of conservatives in Tehran. Ahmadinegad's refusal to stop uranium enrichment, his statements about the holocaust, the threat to wipe Israel off the map and its support for militias in Iraq as well as Hamas and Hezbolah have now been matched by equally bellicose language form Bush and Cheney that sets the two countries on an irreversible road to war.
Last week Bush stunned reporters when replying to a question he stated that "if you're interested in avoiding World War 111, you ought to be interested in preventing Iran from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon." Last Sunday this was taken a step further by the main policy strategist in the White House, Dick Cheney, who stated "we cannot stand by as a terrorist state fulfils its most aggressive ambitions," which he described as "efforts to de-stabilize the Middle east and to gain hegemonic power."
On the surface such rhetoric would be like something form Alice in Wonderland, if its were not so Orwelian. The White House "Ministry of War and Peace" has been the main protagonist in de-stabilizing the Middle east and seeking hegemonic power there, of which its policy towards Iran is equally designed. In fact, it is quite likely to result in World War 111 in form different to those before. There would be intensive airborne and missile warfare, but it is unlikely that the US could invade because the whole Iranian population would fall behind the regime and the armed forces are highly trained in urban guerrilla warfare, which the US could not get bogged down in. Iran would fight fiercely. it would not be World War 111 but it would compound an irrevocable split between the "Christian" and Muslim worlds.
Iran has already threatened to respond to any attack by US Forces with the immediate launching of 11,000 missiles against US positions in Iraq. To which they added "to begin with". Oil platforms and refineries in the Gulf would be hit sending prices of oil through the sky and plummeting the world in to a recession not seen since the inter-war years. In Iraq the US would find that the mass of the Shiite population would stand with Iran and their forces would come under concerted attack by tens of thousands of militia. The Iraqi Army which is riddled with militiamen would likely collapse and Iraq would be thrown into total war and anarchy. Outside of that, the whole of the population of Middle East and Muslim countries would be enraged and radicalised by such a step. It could bring internal turmoil and threaten the ruling regimes of US allies like Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. This would be even more the case if Israel participates in raids. It would not be ruled out that Iran would also target Israel and US bases in Turkey. Fundamentalism in general would be widened and strengthened, despite differences between the Iranian Shiites and Sunni jihadists. Relations with Russia already frosty would be thrown back to glacial times of the Cold War.
Bush and Cheney have been criticized for being in denial over Iraq, but when it comes to Iran they have completely lost touch with reality. They have some 15 months more in office and aim to use their almost omnipotent position to go down in history. Even Time magazine has commented that war look increasingly inevitable and that such is the high-strung state of affairs that it could break out by accident more than design. Any number of incidents can now escalate especially around the Iraq war and the intransigence of Iran over nuclear enrichment. Weapons of Mass destruction could again become the war song of the Bush Administration.
Leadership is about being able to cope intelligently with environmental demands and concrete situations. Good leaders are well-grounded and have a realistic perspective of current and future events. They are able to level-headedly weigh up all the options and think through all the consequences. It takes powerful problem solving skills and considerable flexibility and impulse control to avoid disaster in international affairs. All of these skills are lacking in the Bush/Cheney psyche. In the words of the psychologist Carl G.Jung, "An inflated consciousness is always egocentric and conscious of nothing but its own existence. It is incapable of learning from the past, incapable of understanding contemporary events, and incapable about drawing right conclusions about the future. It is hypnotized by itself and therefore cannot be argued with. It inevitably dooms itself to calamities that must strike it dead."
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david hill says on 2007-11-03 18:11:11 about World War 111
The article is fine in its assessment and where due to growing factors, a global war in some highly powerful minds, may make perfect sense. I say this as the greatest threat to humanity is the population explosion and where a major global war would solve this problem. Indeed, there is a minority of humans with considerable wealth and power who see the destruction of others as the savoir of themselves (and their vast wealth it has to be said also). The late Glenn Seaborg(Element 106 Seaborgium) our founding President personally appealed and implored President Truman not to drop the 'bomb' on occupied Japanese territory. The President though through his military advisers took no notice even though he discovered Plutonium and was head of the Plutonium plant on the Manhattan Project. But behind the scenes also at the time, there were dark figures who saw that after the fall of Japan, great wealth could also be secured. But basically again today, change-master politicians and governments in particular, are in the pocket of very rich and very powerful individuals/multinational companies, who seemingly do not look for peace but in many ways for wars and their own vested economic interests. Thinking that they can survive because they are on the strongest side and the reason why in many ways US$1.2 trillion per annum and growing, is spent on armaments now.
But getting back to humankind's greatest threat (even greater than that of even the warmongers it has to be said) is that of the ever-growing population problem and where I give a little evidence based facts that people may not be aware of.
The population of the world (in absolute numbers) has only to increase year-on-year by a mere 0.85% for there to be 12 billion people by 2075. The current population growth (in absolute numbers) is 1.27% (most recent UN figures), some 26% above the percentage increase for 12 billion humans to exist in 2075. But looking at the present rate of human growth, there would be 15.6 billion human inhabitants living on planet Earth in 67-years time. But again, as growth rates are, in statistical terms (not the best accurate measure by any means), slightly declining year-on-year, let us assume that the growth rate is the average of the two, which is 1.18%, then we would still have 14.7 billion people to support. In every scenario it is something that the world's resources could not possibly support considering rising standards of living throughout the world and where it is predicted that India alone will have over half-billion middle class citizens by 2025 (McKinsey, May 2007) on its present economic path. And a final point, what is happening with statistics is that they are being manipulated as usual. In this respect people say that population is declining statistically, but where in reality as we have a greater number each year for our base-line, the figures are really growing at the same rate as the year before, or close to that. It is a bit of a con job that governments in particular like to use so not to alarm their electorate.
Therefore overall looking at our bleak future in a world with vastly dwindling resources by the decade, a war may very well be on the cards for humankind in this century, and one where this time there will be no winners.
Dr David Hill
World Innovation Foundation Charity
Bern, Switzerland
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